Sun. Apr 21st, 2024
The recent prices actions of ETH are showing signs of distribution. Bull rallies have been weak with decreasing volume, market makers are showing signs of offloading positions and entering shorts, plus there is no current news or events to induce major buyers. This recent bull run seems more like a liquidity grab to wipe out shorts from previous months. I am currently looking for price to break above the PSY line with lime green candles to show market makers pushing price up to offload more positions, enter shorts and induce retails traders to buy again before making a quick move back below support levels.

Preliminary Supply (PSY):

-Market makers begin to distribute.

-RSI: RSI often shows overbought conditions, typically above 70.

-Volume: Increasing volume as market makers sell into strength.

Buying Climax (BCLX):

-Market makers aggressively unload their positions.

-RSI: RSI reaches extreme overbought levels, above 70.

-Volume: High volume, with possible gaps and exhaustion signals.

Automatic Reaction (AR):

-Prices correct as market makers assess the market.

-RSI: RSI may return to a more neutral level around 50.

-Volume: Decreasing as the market corrects, indicating reduced selling pressure.

Secondary Test (ST):

-Prices retest the BCLX level, showing that market makers are still selling.

-RSI: RSI stays relatively neutral around 50.

-Volume: Lower than during the BCLX, indicating less selling pressure.

Sign of Weakness (SOW):

-Clear distribution phase with prices breaking support.

-Market makers accelerate selling.

-RSI: RSI may drop below 30, indicating oversold conditions.

-Volume: Increasing as prices drop, reflecting market makers’ active distribution.

Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD):

-Market makers create a false breakout to deceive retail traders.

-RSI: RSI may show divergence or failure to reach overbought levels during the upthrust.

-Volume: Typically lower than in previous distribution phases as market makers exit.

Major Sign of Weakness (MSOW):

-Market makers continue to distribute.

-RSI: RSI may stay in oversold territory or return to neutral levels.

-Volume: Volume may be higher than during the UTAD phase, showing persistent selling pressure.

Last Point of Supply (LPSY):

-The final phase of distribution where market makers make their last selling efforts.

-RSI: RSI may be oversold or neutral, indicating a lack of buying pressure.

-Volume: Volume is typically low as market makers exit their positions quietly.

Market makers’ actions throughout these subphases involve systematically distributing their holdings and manipulating the market. RSI and volume are used as confirmation tools alongside price action to assess the strength of market makers’ moves and the potential direction of the market.

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