Coefficients: Scottish Premiership at risk of losing Champions League place | Premier League clubs chase extra spot

The UEFA coefficient rankings could see Scotland lose a Champions League spot and Premier League clubs gain an extra slot… but how?

How Scotland could lose CL place

Scotland could lose automatic qualification to the Champions League group stages for the 2025/26 campaign due to a poor return in UEFA’s coefficient rankings.

Additionally, the Scots could see their Champions League allocation reduced to one spot for the 2026/27 campaign onwards.

The coefficient formula factors each association’s performances in the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League over the past five seasons – including the current campaign.

The final season rankings always apply to competition allocations for the season after next, so the final coefficient rankings this term will determine allocations for the competitions to start in 2025/26.

This season, Celtic have been knocked out of the Champions League and Aberdeen eliminated from the Europa Conference League, while Hearts and Hibernian lost out in their qualifiers. However, Rangers have topped Group C in the Europa League and are the country’s only hope of gathering more valuable points this term.

As it stands, Scottish sides have collected 6.2 points coefficient points this season – which ranks as their second-worst return over the five-year period. Scotland currently rank 10th in the rankings, but the margins are tight.

The Czech Republic still have three teams active across UEFA competitions this season and sit merely 1.3 points behind Scotland, meaning there is every chance the Czechs could leapfrog the Scots into 10th.

It gets a lot tougher next season

The Scots are currently propped up by their impressive 2019/20 results – which generated 9.75 points after the Old Firm progressed into the Europa League knockout stages. However, that season will be wiped from the equation at the end of this campaign.

Excluding the 2019/20 tallies, Scotland would sit 14th in the rankings, which emphasises how the pressure to retain the second Champions League spot is likely to ramp up next season.

Therefore, Scotland will be hoping Rangers progress in the Europa League knockouts this term – to outscore countries in their wake, such as Austria, Switzerland, Poland and Greece.

If Scotland were to drop into 16th in the rankings or lower, only one Scottish club would be able to take part in the Champions League for the 2026/27 campaign – entering at the second qualifying round (instead of an automatic group stage spot and qualifying spot).

One Scottish side would qualify for the Europa League – entering at the first qualifying round (currently one team enters the playoff and another the second qualifying round).

Two Scottish teams would qualify for the Europa Conference League – both entering at the second qualifying round.

How England could gain a CL place for start of next season

The Champions League is set for an overhaul, with this season’s competition being the last of its kind. From the start of next season, the traditional 32 teams in eight groups of four is set to change to the ‘Swiss model’: one league with 36 teams.

As a result, four additional Champions League spots will be up for grabs this season, with two of those slots going to the top-two associations in the current 2023/24 coefficient rankings – currently Germany and Italy, but England and Spain are only a whisker behind.

But there’s good news for Premier League clubs punching among the upper rungs, data providers Opta calculate England have a table-topping 77-per-cent chance of claiming a fifth Champions League place.

An additional spot will go to the team that finishes third in the league for the country ranked fifth in the five-year coefficient rankings, which, currently, would be awarded to the Netherlands’ AZ Alkmaar (third place in the Eredivisie).

The final extra slot will be awarded to the club with the highest five-year coefficient ranking in the qualifying path for champions, which is available to associations ranked 15-24, excluding Russia.